The IEA's annual forecast has become steadily darker in recent years, but this time the deterioration in its outlook is dramatic. Only a year ago, the agency was predicting that global oil production in 2030 would reach 116m barrels per day, up from around 84mb/d, but now it has slashed that to 106mb/d.
At the same time, the agency has also doubled its oil price forecast. Last year, it said the cost of crude would fall in the long term, but now it predicts an average of $100 per barrel until 2015, despite the deepening recession, and rising to $120 in real terms by 2030. It concludes that the era of cheap oil is over and that the recent extreme price volatility will continue.
Your average voter doesn't understand supply/demand as a ratio.
Recession hits, demand goes down... so do prices.
But we won't be in a recession forever, and then demand will rise to its previous levels and higher -- and there won't be any larger amount of oil out there.